In the coming years, due to the limited availability of capital and labor shortages in Russia, undulating productivity shocks are possible, and first of all, we are talking about negative shocks, which creates pro-inflationary risks. This is stated in the May review of the monetary policy of the Central Bank.
The department warned that the problems remain the gradual reduction of the workforce in Russia over the long term, as well as the loss of foreign capital, which was previously involved in many production processes. The authors of the report believe that the initial adaptation of the economy to new conditions has been largely completed, but further transformation will largely depend on the availability of production factors and their productivity. This includes the impact of the sanctions, the reconfiguration of the global economy, market fragmentation, the climate agenda, and increased global competition for labor. The Russian economy, the report emphasizes, will have to go through a major restructuring. Some enterprises will be able to switch to another type of product and change the focus of production, while others will have to leave the market. The ratio of sectors in the economy will also change. Earlier it was reported that the Institute for Economic Policy (IEP) named after Yegor Gaidar recorded a record number of reports of a shortage of employees from representatives of the Russian industry. The most difficult situation is in the light industry.