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    Citizens let managers down // The market is waiting for the return of private investors

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    According to the results of the first half of the year, the assets of management companies (MCs) decreased by 5.8%, to 12.8 trillion rubles. The decline is due to the retail segment, which was growing rapidly before the outbreak of hostilities. However, market participants expect that by the end of the year it may recover due to the recovery of demand from private investors amid falling deposit rates and adaptation of the product line to the “new reality”.

    NAUFOR analyzed the asset management market based on the results of the first half year of 2022. 250 MCs took part in the study (96% of the total number of MCs included in the register of the Central Bank). According to the results of the first half of the year, the total volume of assets under management of the management company decreased by 5.8%, amounting to 12.8 trillion rubles. Half of this amount falls on the top ten companies.

    A decrease in assets is observed in almost all areas of the management company’s business, but very unevenly. Work with closed-end mutual funds and institutional investors turned out to be the most stable.

    This became possible due to the net inflow of new funds: according to the Central Bank, net purchases of shares of closed-end mutual funds amounted to almost 570 billion rubles in half a year.

    The volume of assets transferred to the management company from NPFs did not undergo noticeable changes, as well as at the end of 2021. It amounted to about 5 trillion rubles. This became possible due to the easing of the Central Bank, which allowed the use of their fair value as of February 18, 2022 when assessing the value of financial instruments. Without taking into account blocked assets and funds that suspended the calculation of NAV, the losses exceeded 40%, according to NAUFOR.

    billion rubles According to Diana Sergienko, director of ratings for insurance and investment companies at Expert RA, in addition to outflows from functioning funds, a negative revaluation of their assets also had a negative impact.

    Despite this, management companies do not plan to change their strategies business development and refocus on institutional investors. “The retail segment remains the growth driver of the industry,” notes Irina Krivosheeva, CEO of Alfa Capital Management Company. In her opinion, the segments of individuals – remote control and funds – will return to growth by the end of the year, which will be facilitated by the continued fall in deposit rates. In the third quarter, private investors invested more than 14 billion rubles in retail funds.

    Andrey Makarov, head of the sales department at Pervaya Management Company.

    “The formation of products adapted to the “new reality”, such as, for example, funds with intermediate payments or strategies with capital protection, can add positive to the retail business, as well as the opportunity to create products for new markets that are friendly to us,” says Yevgeny Gorbunov, head of the investment products and technologies department of Otkritie Management Company. market stability. “They should be supported by the state,” he notes.

    With a moderately positive external forecast and steady market growth, according to Irina Krivosheeva, the asset management industry as a whole can grow by 10% in 2023 , while the retail business (excluding the effect of blocked assets) may add 400 billion rubles.

    At the same time, competition between companies is expected to increase in the market. According to Mr. Vanin, we can talk about the prospects for a certain change in the landscape as a result of the departure of small single-product players and the transition of their customers to larger ones in case of negative scenarios for the development of the situation.

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