The export of electricity from Russia to China has grown by 23% since the beginning of the year, said Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov. In real terms, the volume of supply, according to Kommersant‘s information, could reach a record figure of 4.2 billion kWh. However, the Chinese direction still does not allow the Russian Federation to replace the EU market lost due to hostilities: this year, the total export of electricity may decrease by a third compared to the previous year.
months grew by 23%,” Nikolai Shulginov, head of the Russian Ministry of Energy, told reporters on Monday, December 5. Total exports in physical terms, according to Kommersant‘s information, amounted to about 4.2 billion kWh – a record value in the entire history of observations. For comparison: in 2021, Inter RAO (a monopoly exporter of electricity) for the first time increased exports to China by 30% year-on-year, to 3.97 billion kWh, against the backdrop of an energy shortage in China.
Inter RAO did not comment on Kommersant‘s data on the volume of deliveries to China. Chairman of the Board of Directors of Inter RAO Igor Sechin said at the end of November that against the backdrop of heat and energy shortages, the company, at the request of the PRC, in January-October increased supplies to China by 33%, to about 4 billion kWh. Statistics on the export of electricity after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine is closed, Inter RAO also stopped publishing data, and the Market Council (energy market regulator) stopped publishing it since July.
Inter RAO buys energy from the power plants of the Far East (mainly from RusHydro), and then resells it to China, additionally paying for its transmission services. The profitability of supplies to China was estimated at 30%, but the regulator limits the company’s profit at 5% per year, the rest of the revenue is distributed to market participants in the Far East. The technical capabilities of power transmission lines allow Russia to transmit to China up to 6-7 billion kWh, according to Regina Lyanzberg from Kept. Supply in the amount of 7 billion kWh is possible only with an increase in the installed power capacity in the Far East, she notes.
Finland, Latvia and 60% export. However, in May, deliveries there stopped due to problems with the calculations. According to Kommersant‘s information, Russia managed to sell about 4–5 billion kWh to the EU against the backdrop of high prices. be about 5 billion kWh. Inter RAO refuted Kommersant‘s data on the level of deliveries to Kazakhstan, refusing to give actual figures.
The remaining export destinations for Inter RAO are unlikely to be able to replace closed deliveries to the EU. So, in October, Andrey Logatkin, Director of the International Cooperation Department of Rosseti, said that electricity exports from Russia by the end of 2022 could fall to 13.5 billion kWh, which is 38% lower than last year’s figures.
Among the new promising areas is Azerbaijan, Regina Lyanzberg believes. Long-term plans include the construction of a second 330 kV Derbent-Khachmaz line, as well as the parallel operation of the power systems of Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, which can probably increase supplies to Azerbaijan. However, such plans are most likely to be implemented already beyond the horizon of 2023, Ms. Lanzberg suggests.