According to the results of this year, the number of apartments sold in elite new buildings will be reduced by one and a half times. The reason for this is the outflow of some wealthy clients abroad and the reorientation of the remaining buyers to the secondary market. Developer activity in the segment is still maintained due to the availability of funding, but it will not be easy for developers to sell expensive housing. Investors have no incentives to invest in elite new buildings in Moscow. It is difficult to sell such lots later, and it is unprofitable to rent them out, the consultants explain. real estate. The company estimates the total value of these transactions at RUB 93–95 billion, which is 23% less than a year ago. The total area of sold lots will decrease over the same period by about 40%, to 76-78 thousand square meters. m.
In value terms, the turnover of this segment shrank by 32.4%, to 42.8 billion rubles. NF Group believes that the number of transactions this year will be 44% lower than last year, and their total value will be 40% lower, to RUB 100 billion.
Declining demand for elite new buildings last times was observed in 2017-2018, recalls the managing partner of Intermark Real Estate Dmitry Khalin. According to him, several factors negatively affect the segment this year. “Some potential buyers have left the country, others have abandoned the idea of investing in elite new buildings, preferring to transfer money into foreign currency or pick up assets abroad, others have reoriented to the secondary market, considering it more attractive in terms of prices and guarantees,” lists Mr. Khalin. Anna Radzhabova, director of the elite real estate department at Metrium Premium, believes that many clients in general have decided to postpone the decision to purchase real estate until the situation stabilizes. seven years earlier. The construction of another ten projects has been put on hold this year, and they will enter the market in 2023, Mr. Halin adds. Metrium Premium says that if a year ago sales were carried out in 55 elite projects, now they are in 63. NF Group partner Andrey Solovyov speaks of an annual increase in exposure by 37%, up to 1.8 thousand apartments and suites.
Maxim Leshchev, managing partner of the Meta group, assumes that development activity in the segment will continue despite the decline in demand. According to him, banks are now lending to development projects in the mass and elite segments, while they are ready to finance business-class housing to a lesser extent.
Intermark Real Estate, will amount to 1.2 million rubles. for 1 sq. m, an increase of 9% year-on-year. The consultants note that the declared average market value of expensive housing at the same time increased by 27%, to 1.6 million rubles. for 1 sq. m. But buyers chose lower prices. At the same time, many developers in the autumn were forced to meet buyers halfway, selling real estate on preferential terms (see Kommersant of November 25). Andrey Solovyov also draws attention to the dependence of the market on prices: “We will continue to live in the realities of the buyer’s market and the search for a balance of supply and demand in the new conditions.” Anna Radzhabova expects that buyer activity will also be supported by the effect of pent-up demand and the difficulty of investing in foreign assets.
Infoline-Analytica CEO Mikhail Burmistrov sees no incentives for potential investors to invest in elite new buildings in Moscow . “Many wealthy people have left Moscow, the secondary supply against this background has reached a record volume – it is now impossible to sell something without a big discount, and rental yields have dropped sharply,” he explains.
The expert points out, that there are no prerequisites for a reversal of these trends yet. Investors who decide to invest in housing, according to Mr. Burmistrov, will rather pay attention to the markets of the UAE, Turkey or the countries of the post-Soviet space. He does not wait for a revival in demand until the stabilization of the geopolitical situation.