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    Oil products rushed down // Exchange prices for fuel fall

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    The main types of petroleum products in Russia are rapidly becoming cheaper on the wholesale market. Since the beginning of September alone, quotes of individual brands have lost more than 20%, while LPG prices have fallen by a third. This is facilitated by a surplus in the domestic market, taking into account export restrictions, as well as a record drop in oil prices over the past year to $83 per barrel. In the future, experts assume that this trend will continue, but do not expect a reduction in the tax burden in the oil sector.

    The wholesale price of the main brands of gasoline on the St. indicators since spring. Thus, the cost of AI-95 fuel in the European part of Russia on Monday decreased by 3.57%, to 41.38 thousand rubles. per ton. Since the beginning of September, the decline has been 21%. AI-92 gasoline fell in price by 2.34% to 40.56 thousand rubles. per ton (from the beginning of the month – by 12.5%). The cost of jet fuel remained at the level of 69.97 thousand rubles. per ton.

    Diesel fuel quotations, which have updated records several times since the beginning of the year, also began to decline (by 0.79% to 57.69 thousand rubles per ton). The last time a historical maximum of 58.15 thousand rubles. per ton, the price for the summer type of this fuel at SPIMEX reached quite recently – on September 23. The previous record was set the day before, on September 22, (57.95 thousand rubles per ton). falling to the minimum. So, if at the beginning of summer they dropped to a level below 6 thousand rubles. per ton, then in August the price increased four times relative to these indicators, exceeding 24 thousand rubles. per ton. However, then a correction took place in this market, but by mid-September the price of LPG again won back its values, in order to then move on to a peak drop from 21.86 thousand rubles. per ton on September 14 to 13.84 thousand rubles. per tonne on September 26 (down by a third in two weeks).

    The main reason for the downward dynamics in both the gasoline and LPG sectors is an oversupply of oil and gas products in the domestic market amid export restrictions. For example, according to Reuters, gasoline supplies abroad at prices subsidized by the state with the help of a damper mechanism fell by 14% in August compared to July due to the weakening of traders’ interest in such a supply scheme. Agency sources explain that since the second half of July, due to a sharp increase in wholesale prices for motor gasoline in the Russian Federation, the economic feasibility of its purchases on the domestic market of the Russian Federation for subsequent exports has sharply decreased and remained only if traders were able to return value added tax ( VAT) for delivered volumes. At the same time, in August and September, the purchase of gasoline at domestic prices for export became unprofitable even with the return of VAT, traders explain. This put pressure on prices, which began to decline earlier than the traditional time for this time at the end of autumn. In addition, prices are affected by oil quotes, which on September 26 reached their lowest level since the beginning of the year at $83 per barrel of Brent. in the demand for motor fuels, it is declining. But, according to him, it is difficult to say how long this trend will last. Traditionally, the expert explains, “prices fall quickly and rise slowly,” but this logic works in a standard situation. The downward trend, says Mr. Zabelin, may continue. At the same time, he notes, possible changes in fuel taxation may play a role. It is definitely not worth expecting a decrease in the tax burden, the expert believes.

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