Rosstat estimated the decline in the economy in the first quarter of 2023 by 1.9%, which is better than the estimates of the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank. The improvement in estimates was facilitated by the state order in processing, the growth of output in the agro-industrial complex, construction and services. The restoration of services has been one of the main driving forces in improving business dynamics, private incomes – and in accelerating inflation. But, despite the expectations of representatives of the sector, the demand for services in April-May began to cool. But even without this, the estimate of GDP in the first quarter does not allow analysts to assess the future growth of the economy at the level expected by the government.