In August, the Russian car market continued its slow recovery and will show the best result since the beginning of the crisis – sales of new passenger cars will reach 42 thousand units. However, the market is still almost half of what it was in March. Sales are now supported by government-subsidized concessional lending, which stimulates demand for Lada, as well as large deals for the purchase of Chinese cars for car-sharing fleets. 2.5%, up to 10 thousand cars, follows from the data of Avtostat. At the same time, according to the results of four weeks – from August 1 to August 28 – 37.5 thousand cars were sold. Based on the average monthly sales rate and taking into account the remaining three days of August, the market can reach 41.5 thousand cars per month. If we take into account the higher sales rates at the end of the month (up to 1.4 thousand cars per day against the monthly average rate of 1.3 thousand cars per day), then the market will reach 41.7 thousand cars.
The results of August are already better than all previous months since the beginning of the crisis. In March, against the backdrop of hostilities in Ukraine, car factories in Russia stopped en masse, and most foreign brands stopped deliveries of cars. However, sales in August are still about 47% lower than in March, which was the last month when there was a boom in demand for cars amid the deficit and the devaluation of the ruble.
The share of lending in the new cars today on average continues to be between 30% and 60% depending on the brand. At the same time, consumer interest in July-August was fueled by the resumption of state programs for preferential lending, which applies to the purchase of Russian cars, he believes. advance payment when buying cars worth up to 2 million rubles. In practice, we are actually talking only about Lada cars. In July, sales of AvtoVAZ turned out to be 2.5 thousand cars more than a month earlier, and in four weeks of August they grew by 3.5 thousand, up to 13.5 thousand cars. According to the results of the month, they can increase by almost 5 thousand cars, reaching 15.4 thousand units.
Kia continues to be the market leader among foreign cars, but the Chinese Haval has overtaken the second Korean concern Hyundai in sales. The share of Haval, which, like Lada, continues to be produced in the Russian Federation, but, together with other foreign brands, was not included in state support, grew by 0.9 percentage points (pp) over the four weeks of August compared to July, reaching 7 %. Chery has the opposite situation – the share of the brand fell by 0.3 percentage points over four weeks, to 6.9%. Chinese cars are now steadily replenishing the carsharing fleet, for example, last week Yandex.Drive reported on the replenishment of the fleet with more than 400 cars of Haval, Chery and Geely brands.
Meanwhile, dealers’ car stocks continue to decline. Warehouses have not yet been empty, and today buyers still have a choice, “the most tangible shortage is still observed in the premium car segment,” says Alexey Starikov. He doesn’t expect parallel imports to make a difference. “The situation with warehouses is approximately the same for everyone – Chinese brands are in a slightly better shape,” says Andrey Olkhovsky, head of Avtodom. He adds that in general demand is still at a low level, “the most toxic factor for demand for durable goods is the current uncertainty.”
Sergey Udalov from Avtostat notes that the remaining warehouses Renault, Skoda, VW and other brands will continue to decline, due to which the share of Lada and Chinese brands will grow. The main drivers of the market will remain the preferential car loan program, which enables AvtoVAZ to increase sales, as well as the need to upgrade taxi and car sharing parks, for which brands from China are suitable.