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    Yuan will be the third // The share in exchange trading volume is growing thanks to exporters, importers and investors

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    Rates of the world’s leading currencies on the Russian market have updated three-week lows. During trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar exchange rate fell below the level of 59 rubles / $, and the euro exchange rate – below 60 rubles / €, the yuan – up to 8.68 rubles. Exporters have become more active on the market and have begun to prepare rubles for the payment of August taxes – the main sales are made in euros and yuan. The share of the yuan in the volume of trading in key currencies exceeded 30%.

    On Thursday, August 18, at the Moscow Exchange, the dollar exchange rate renewed a three-week low – during the trading session, the US currency fell to 58.90 rubles. /$, the lowest value since July 24th. This is almost 1.85 rubles. lower than the previous day’s close. As a result of the trading session, the rate stopped near the mark of 59.53 rubles / $, having lost 1.22 rubles per day. The euro exchange rate during trading fell to a minimum since July 26 – 59.60 rubles / €, and closed at around 60.18 rubles / €, which is 1.48 rubles. lower than the previous day. The yuan declined less significantly, by only 1.6%, to 8.756 rubles/yuan.

    Most of the day, the trading volume in the yuan exceeded the dollar, whose trading volumes took the lead only towards the end of the trading session , amounting to 81.6 billion rubles at the end of the day, which is almost 10% lower than the Wednesday indicator. The volume of trading with the euro amounted to 74.65 billion rubles, which is 11% lower than the previous day, but almost 15% higher than the average since the beginning of the month. As a result, the share of the yuan in trading in key currencies reached 31% against 18% a month earlier.

    The strengthening of the ruble is due to the beginning of the tax period in the Russian Federation. Until next Thursday, companies will have to pay contributions in the amount of about 1 trillion rubles, another about 0.4 trillion rubles – until August 28 on income tax, estimates the head of the analytical department of Bank Zenit Vladimir Evstifeev. “It is possible that exporters are beginning to activate the sale of foreign exchange earnings for upcoming tax payments in advance,” notes Mr. Evstifeev. , is associated with the sale of currency received as payment for Russian gas supplies. And in foreign economic activity, many companies are switching to yuan. According to PSB Chief Analyst Egor Zhilnikov, a large number of sectors have already switched to exporting to Asian markets (for example, ferrous metallurgy), which is why companies tend to have a surplus of yuan rather than dollars.

    buyers – in the person of Chinese importers, who absorb the growing supply of this currency. In the first seven months of 2022, China‘s exports to Russia grew by 5.2%, to $36.3 billion. As a result, Chinese manufacturers took the lead in certain industries, in particular, in the second quarter, more than 80% of new cars imported into Russia were made in China.

    This is facilitated not only by the toxicity of the dollar and the euro, but also by the emergence of new instruments denominated in yuan. After a successful debut placement on the Russian bond market of Rusal (see Kommersant dated July 28), Polyus will offer similar papers next week. “Bidders can prepare and purchase the required amount of yuan to participate in the upcoming placement,” said Expobank CFO Ernst Becker. Taking into account the size of domestic ruble rates and the prospect of further reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, according to Vladimir Evstifeev, investments in yuan can already compete with the ruble. a matter of time, analysts say. “Until the end of the year, we will see increasing turnover in yuan trading more than once. Consolidation of the dominant position of the Chinese currency in the Russian market can be expected as early as the beginning of 2023,” Ernst Becker believes. At the same time, the dollar and the euro, as Egor Zhilnikov notes, will gradually fade into the background.

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